With the Jobs Report for December showing only 18,000 new jobs when estimates were looking for 70,000 thats quite a surprise. Unemployment is creeping up as well to 5% this is a pretty large increase from Novembers level of 4.7%. Bad news for stocks but great news for mortgage bonds!
The bad news with the slide in interest rates as is with all the so called help from the government for those facing foreclosure or arm resets is that the majority of those wanting to take advantage of the lower rates and refinance can not. Its nearly impossible for even the best of credit scores to refinance their loan right now at anything over 80%. I have had four loans in December alone, all rate and term refinances (no cash out), all mid 700 credit scores not get approved. Its ridiculous right now, mortgage bonds are at the best they have been since summer of 2005 but its increasingly harder for approvals on refinances to take advantage of them.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have all but closed up funding higher loan to values. I do not see this getting better anytime soon and even see it getting worse before it gets better. Most lenders have already added Risk Based Pricing to loans that Fannie and Freddie are officially starting in March 2008. Some lenders are starting to take away Investor loan programs for cash out. That is correct No Cash Out for Real Estate Investors, not even $10. Also some lenders are pulling Expanded Approvals as well. Then you have the automatic 5% value reduction for declining markets.
The storm is not over yet. There are going to be many more limiting changes that are coming down the pipe I am sure and It will not matter how low rates go if mortgage holders can not take advantage of them.
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